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- Bitcoin’s price has recovered 40 percent of the bear market drop. The breakout has bolstered the bullish setup on the weekly chart, which is currently reporting the strongest buying pressure in six months. As a result, BTC looks set to break above the psychological resistance of $10,000.
- The price has already rallied nearly 130 percent so far this quarter. Hence, a temporary correction due to bull exhaustion cannot be ruled out.
- The outlook, however, will remain bullish as long the price is held above recent lows near $7,500.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has erased 40 percent of the sell-off seen in the twelve months to December 2018 and looks set to rise above $10,000.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value rose above $9,740 on Bitstamp earlier today, retracing more than 40 percent of the drop from the record high of $19,666 reached in December 2017 to the low of $3,122 hit in December 2018. The global average price, as calculated by CoinMarketCap, is just $150 away from achieving that milestone.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $9,840 on Bitstamp – the highest level since May 2018 – representing 31 percent gains from lows near $7,500 seen on June 10.
It is worth noting that bitcoin’s latest leg higher is a accompanied by a rally in gold prices. The yellow metal has risen from 1,320 to $1,411 over the last ten days.
The positive correlation between the two assets contradicts the divergent price action seen in the preceding seven months.
For instance, BTC fell from $6,200 to levels near $3,100 in four weeks to December 14, 2018. During the same time period, gold went from $1,200 to $1,300 and further extended the rally to $1,346 (Feb. 20 high). By early May, the yellow metal was down 6 percent from February highs, while bitcoin was up 76 percent from December lows.
The change from negative correlation to positive correlation, if sustained, could boost bitcoin’s appeal as digital gold. Many including the likes of Tyler Winklevoss, founder of Winklevoss Capital Management, already consider bitcoin as gold 2.0.
It remains to be seen if the two assets continue to move in the same direction in the near future. That said, technical charts indicate bitcoin is likely to extend its ongoing bullish run to levels above $10,000.
Weekly chart
Bitcoin’s convincing move above the widely tracked 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement hurdle of $9,442 has strengthened the bullish case put forward by the higher lows, higher highs pattern, ascending 5- and 10- week moving averages and Chaikin money flow index, which is currently reporting strongest buying pressure in six months with a reading of 0.35.
As a result, the cryptocurrency looks set to test the next major resistance range marked by the April 2018 high of $9,949 and the psychological resistance of $10,000.
A high-volume weekly close above $10,000 would expose the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement resistance of $11,394.
It is worth noting that the cryptocurrency is up nearly 140 percent on a quarter-to-date basis (from April 1’s opening price). The bulls usually take a breather following such stellar rallies.
So, a sudden correction cannot be ruled out. That said, the outlook would turn bearish only if the price violates the bullish higher lows pattern with a move below $7,500.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing
Bitcoin image via CoinDesk archives; charts by TradingView
A new development in the Kleiman v Wright lawsuit was announced today as a member of the plaintiff’s representation disclosed that Wright has not complied with a court directive to list his bitcoin holdings prior to December 31, 2013.
A show cause hearing will follow next week, and Wright may be held in contempt of court at either the civil or criminal level.
Velve Freedman of Boies Schiller Flexner LLP the firm representing plaintiff Ira Kleiman tweeted:
Florida judge Bruce Reinhart had ordered Craig Wright, who claims to have invented the bitcoin software, to disclose his bitcoin addresses in an ongoing lawsuit filed by the estate of his former business partner, David Kleiman.
Ira Kleiman, Dave’s brother, on behalf of the Kleiman estate accused the Australian entrepreneur of scheming to seize a shared holding of bitcoin the two mined together between 2009 and 2011, as well as Kleiman’s intellectual property. The plaintiff seeks the return of half of a 1.1 million bitcoin stockpile, allegedly held in the “Tulip Trust,” which Wright claimed consolidated bitcoin he mined and purchased between 2009 and 2011.
According to a court declaration filed on May 8, Wright said seven trustees were named, including Craig Wright, David Kleiman, and Ms. Uyen Nguyen — whom Wright claimed he has had no contact with since 2016. Wright has also said in the past, “Access to the encrypted file that contains the public addresses and their associated private keys to the Bitcoin that I mined, requires myself and combination of trustees reference in Tulip Trust I to unlock based on Shamir scheme.”
In the declaration, Wright also pointed to the existence of bitcoin mined under his direction at by staff at HighSecured and Signia Enterprises. Wright said this stockpile is also inaccessible.
The existence of a previously unknown second Tulip Trust – to which Equater Consultants is named a trustee – also come to light in the court document.
It is unknown how the Federal court has ascertained the existence of bitcoin holdings not previously disclosed by Wright. A transcript of a hearing held on June 11 before Judge Reinhart is under seal, along with the bitcoin listings Wright has provided.
Stephen Palley, a lawyer who has followed the case closely but does not represent either party, said, “This is a huge pressure point in settlement negotiations which may or may not be happening.”
Negotiations between the parties reached an impasse at a mediation session held on June 18.
Neither Freedman or Palley responded to a request for comment. As it stands Wright will appear for a deposition on June 28, at the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida.
Image via Shutterstock
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